A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
